Fuel Prices Are Giving Mood Swings: Here Is Why They Will Not Stay Still

Mid-2023: petrol at ₦1,100–₦1,200 per litre after subsidy removal. Late 2024: back down to ₦850–₦900. Late 2025: up again to ₦1,200. Early 2026: swinging between ₦1,200 and ₦1,400. What is going on — and why won’t fuel prices just pick a number and stay there?

Six Reasons Fuel Prices Keep Moving

1. Global Crude Oil Benchmarks

Petrol is made from crude oil. When crude prices rise globally, fuel prices rise everywhere — including in Nigeria. When they drop, prices can fall too. Nigeria is not isolated from the global oil market.

2. Middle East Tensions

When wars or conflicts disrupt oil supply routes — like the Iran-USA tensions around the Strait of Hormuz — oil prices shoot up worldwide. That is why petrol climbed close to ₦1,400 per litre recently.

3. Dangote Refinery Still Imports Crude

Here is the irony: the Dangote Refinery — which was supposed to make Nigeria self-sufficient in petrol — does not get enough Nigerian crude locally. So it has been importing crude from abroad, which is even more expensive. Those costs flow through to the pump price.

4. The Exchange Rate

Crude oil is priced in US dollars. When the naira is weak, the cost of crude becomes much higher in naira. When the naira strengthens slightly, fuel becomes a little cheaper.

5. Logistics and Distribution Costs

After refining, fuel still needs to be transported across Nigeria — storage, trucking, middlemen. These costs are baked into the final price at the pump.

6. No More Subsidy

Before mid-2023, the government absorbed part of the cost of fuel so Nigerians paid less at the pump. Now you pay the full market price. With subsidy gone, Nigeria is fully exposed to all five of the above factors at once.

In Short

Global price + dollar exchange rate + logistics costs + no subsidy = mood swings in fuel prices.

In today’s world, fuel does not just power cars — it powers the cost of living. Transport, food prices, school runs, business operations — everything goes up when fuel goes up. Understanding why helps you plan smarter and advocate for better policies.